Last updated: May 2 2025, 10:00PM
The Liberal party maintained its dominance in Toronto, as Mark Carney held onto the prime ministership in a historic election. But with many votes still being counted late into the night, the Conservatives appeared to have made tentative inroads in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).
Over the short, five-week election period, Carney had kept a clear, though narrowing lead over Pierre Polievre’s Conservatives, who only months ago were widely believed to seize a surefire win.
Shortly after midnight, with final results still pending, the Liberals were leading in a majority of the 59 ridings in the GTA, long seen as a vital battleground for any national victory.
However, the Conservatives, who have run an exceptionally tight-lipped campaign, with local candidates not speaking to media, were poised to turn historically Liberal corners of the GTA blue.
The NDP, which has not held a seat in Toronto since 2015, was shut out once again.
Liberals Hold Toronto
Last year, when Conservative Don Stewart won a shocking by-election in Toronto–St Paul’s in the heart of the city, the victory earned the party an important toehold in the Liberals’ GTA stronghold.
This election, that toehold disintegrated, with Liberal Leslie Church winning the rematch. Church, a Liberal party stalwart who was Chrystia Freeland’s former chief of staff, was projected to win against Stewart and the NDP’s Bruce Levy.
In Taiaiako’n–Parkdale–High Park, Liberal Karim Bardeesy beat the NDP’s Bhutila Karpoche in what was widely considered the NDP’s best chance of winning a seat in the GTA. To run in this election, Bardeesy, formerly a deputy principal secretary to ex-premier Kathleen Wynne, had stepped away from his role as executive director of the Dias, a public policy think tank at Toronto Metropolitan University. Bardeesy had previously lost to Karpoche, when the two ran against each other for provincial office in 2022. If confirmed, he will replace outgoing Liberal MP Arif Virani, the former Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada.
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In Don Valley North, where both Conservative and Liberal candidates have run unusually quiet campaigns, the Liberal’s Maggie Chi won against Conservative Joe Tay, a Hong Kong actor who’s the subject of a HK$1 million ($180,000 Canadian) bounty and is wanted in that territory for his support of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement.
Chi has spent more than 12 years at City Hall as an advisor to city councillors in this part of Toronto.
Meanwhile, in a surprise turn in York Centre, Conservative candidate Roman Baber, who formerly served in provincial parliament, was projected to win against Liberal incumbent Ya’ara Saks, the recent Minister of Mental Health and Addictions.
Conservative Inroads in the GTA
Beyond Toronto, the outcomes were less clear, though early results showed Conservatives making tentative gains in Peel and York regions.
The ridings in York Region directly north of Toronto—largely upper-middle class, multicultural bedroom communities—were ridings that Conservatives have long targeted, and this election they appeared to make inroads in the region.
In Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill, where Liberals won by only the slimmest margin last election, incumbent Leah Taylor Roy lost to Conservative Costas Menegakis. Next door, in King–Vaughan, Conservative incumbent Anna Roberts was declared the winner versus Mubarak Ahmed, an engineer and community leader.
Markham–Unionville was at the centre of controversy this election when it was revealed Liberal candidate Paul Chiang had suggested people could claim the bounty on Conservative Joe Tay by bringing him to the Chinese consulate. (Tay had been vying to become the Conservative candidate in this riding before securing a spot on his party’s ticket in Don Valley North.) Chiang withdrew from the race amid mounting pressure and was replaced by Peter Yuen, a former police deputy chief. Yuen himself came under scrutiny for his interactions with Beijing-friendly groups.
As of early Tuesday morning, Conservative Michael Ma was projected to win that riding.
In the fast-growing and immigrant-rich region of Peel, the Liberals continued their dominance in Mississauga with wins in all six ridings. In Brampton’s extremely close races, Conservative Amarjeet Gill was projected to win Brampton West while the remaining ridings stayed Liberal.
The Local’s Federal Election 2025 coverage is supported in part by our readers and by the Covering Canada: Election 2025 Fund.
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